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Quick Question/ Zone 5

D

Deano

Guest
I hunt on a friends farm in Zone 5 when I am lucky eneugh to draw a tag. I drew last year (2002)so I felt my odds of drawing this year were nil. Now the problem I have a chance to hunt the bow only zone in Calgary with a good friend at a fraction of the usual cost. I cannot do both trips ( Vacation time and family obligations) if I would by chance draw an Iowa tag. I would have to not go on one of the hunts. I would give up the Calgary hunt but would lose deposit etc. Any ideas or information on Drawing a tag in zone 5 without a preference point would be very helpful. I have been told that there is a decent chance to draw without a prefeerence point and was wondering if that information was accurate.

Thank You,

Deano
 
I am not really worried about the sure thing. I would hate to be double booked. I truly enjoy my time in Iowa and do not want to book in Calgary if there is a good to moderate chance I will draw in Iowa.

Thank you

Deano
 
Deano,

Your chances of drawing zone 5 in Iowa are probably going to be less than 10%. Depending on applicants and outcome of SF-18 (don't hold your breath on that passing). Another option is to apply for the zone in Iowa that is hardest to draw in and that way your odds may go down further. If it was me I would apply for Iowa in hopes of a preference point for next year and book the Calgary hunt. My 2cents!

Nonres
 
Rackaddict:

I need to let my friend and the outfitter know by the 20th of February.

Deano
 
Deano,
whoops, should have read all of nonres,he alread said what I was going too.
 
Deano, according to my "calculations" based on the numbers from the IDNR web page:

2002: 1500 permits available
2001: 2460 people applied.

So 960 people received a preference point if 2460 applied in 2002 as well.

Lets assume again that all 960 apply this year. That leaves 540 of 1500 permits for people without a point. If 2460 people apply again your odds will be about 36% without a point. Lots of assuming but I think 36% is in the ballpark.

I would suggest not applying. Go to Calgary, just think, you will be helping out a fellow nr.
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Zone 9 has the worst odds while zone 2 has the best chances. Zone 5 is about the average with 4,6,8 and 10.

Tim
 
I would agree with PYBucks with approx 1/3 chance. The only thing is I bet the NR applicants dropped for 2002 due to the significantly higher fee. But prior to that NR applicants were increasing an average of 10%+ per year, so maybe they offset each other. I hope some stats on 2002 NR applicants are available prior to this year's draw, as I've also been hunting zone 5.

I'd suggest booking the Calgary trip, then applying for zone 9 just to get your preference point. The you can be confident to draw Iowa in 2004.
 
I think i may have the answer apply for iowa and take the calgery hunt if you draw iowa i will gladly take your spot in calgery.

Just kidding my calculations agree with the above about 35% or higher chance especially with the past years increase I am sure that slowed down the total number of applications for sure.
 
Are you crazy? Iowa will always be here...do the Calgary hunt while you have the chance. Just my opinion.

NWBuck
 
Deano, Are you up against a deadline to decide? If not, usually you know if your drawn or not in iowa by mid June.
 
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