$3 almost on the dot I think was the text I got today for selling October corn. Beans I think were like low $10's. So, beans, not so bad really. I mean, sure, not $15 but a heck of a lot better than $7. Looking way back on corn, I bought my 1st farm when corn was about $1.50-$2 a bushel. I think that was like 2002. Dunno, there's been good and bad with the peaks and valleys on prices. one thing is for sure, the peaks and valleys will continue forever. How long they'll last, who frigin knows.
Ok, on the PREDICTION SIDE, here's one schmo's 2 cents (and everytime I listen to experts on anything from stocks to gold to politics to weather, they are wrong)..... I personally saw a heck of a lot of corn planted early that did good. This is across a few states. got in EARLY, caught a lot of good rain and I personally think based on what I'm seeing across quite a vast area, on average, corn yields look "good". this is one Schmo out here looking, one. BUT, if watching farm after farm and various areas of the midwest looking "Good to great", I personally think we're going to look at corn staying about the same for price or adjusting slightly. If we get a big drought for the next month (or WHATEVER for big news on economics, low yield predictions, fall of the US dollar value - WHATEVER), prices will go up, IMO. I doubt this will be the case. If I had to guess, just based on what I see and understanding World Economics at a "pretty decent level".... I'd bet a NICKEL that corn will stay above $3 and below $4, which is a pretty wide spread. don't think it's going to do a lot unless something big changes.
Now, where does this meet any level of thinking for ME or OTHERS I know?????.....
IMO, lock in as much CRP as you can. But, IMO, kinda like barrels of oil bottoming & rebounding from $25-30/barrel - I think it'll be on the way back up EVENTUALLY. So, hopefully folks can do CRP or weather the storm however long it is. I think my mind is gearing towards buying land. that's just me. I think more farmers are going to drop off if corn stays at low $3's. Rent is gonna go down, etc. Land prices- down. OPPORTUNITY for those that like to buy when markets are down and sell when markets are high (obvious but human nature often does the opposite). I dunno, this schmo is looking for some very nearby production ground if i can get some next to me.
Pushing my buddies to get into CRP right now too. I love the pendulum for CONSERVATION AND WILDLIFE swinging back to the right after about 5-7 years of being too far to the left with CRP being taken out and timber & trees dissapearing faster than I've seen it in my lifetime. I saw 100 year old trees (and call them 100 year old CHOICES being made) being taken out on a WHIM as corn spiked at $7. Often to get an extra acre of JUNK ground to farm. That sickened me. Long rant, sorry.... I actually kinda think fluctuation is good for things and I do feel bad for those who face financial hardships... With markets "high" groups suffer (wildlife, feeding livestock, folks buying groceries, etc), when markets are low groups suffer (farmers, machinery makers, ag companies, real estate values, etc). Big picture stuff here and I personally think a mild correction is healthy for our system. Even though my personal pocket book on grain sales is being hurt by this as we speak - I WELCOME & think it's good to see a modest correction. 2 cents from 1 schmo
