Sad

[letemgrow]

My dad had 40 acres of awesome pheasant/quail hunting by the IA line. Soon the 2 draws were changed to one, then none. Its all fescue grass on the tiles and pond dam. Not much for hunting anymore and he gained a few acres out of all that work.

The farming got better for him, not really worth pheasant/quail hunting anymore...boy if I ever inherit that 40 acres tho things will change

 

[Daver]

Another problem with all of this waterway dozing and tile work is flooding.. doing this stuff on all of these farms has a much wider effect... the water can't seep into the ground and get into the water table for the most part because there is tile everywhere.

I have been thinking and saying this for years and within the last year or so there has been some reference to the impact of massive tiling in the media, but not a lot. The rationale for a farmer to clear a fenceline or waterway is pretty clear with grain prices so high, so it is no shock that so much of that is going on, but the huge amount of tiling that has taken place over the past 20 years or so has a big impact on flooding if you ask me.

 

[Buck Junkie]

Enjoy visiting this site and reading all the post and this particular one got me motivated enough to join! I apologize for a controversial 1st post, but am compleled to comment. I work with a number of farmers in my profession and I can completely understand thier motives. 1st and foremost they own the land, so it is thier right to do as they wish. The problem I have with all this is that when the cycle comes back around we the tax payers will be paying them to take this marginal ground out of production! Cost share agreements to put filter strips/crp/waterways is the norm, so its a win win situation for the farmer. Maximize profit on the way up and let the government bail them out for farming "marginal" land on the way down.

 

[mplane72]

Enjoy visiting this site and reading all the post and this particular one got me motivated enough to join! I apologize for a controversial 1st post, but am compleled to comment. I work with a number of farmers in my profession and I can completely understand thier motives. 1st and foremost they own the land, so it is thier right to do as they wish. The problem I have with all this is that when the cycle comes back around we the tax payers will be paying them to take this marginal ground out of production! Cost share agreements to put filter strips/crp/waterways is the norm, so its a win win situation for the farmer. Maximize profit on the way up and let the government bail them out for farming "marginal" land on the way down.

DING DING DING We have a winner!

I by no means think that a few farmers putting in more crops is the sole or even the largest cause of the decline in pheasant or deer, but it sure does not help. Then you consider what else happens as a result of removing buffer strips and tiling every last piece of ground such as flooding and increased sedimentation of our rivers, which really pisses me off here on the Mississippi. Now add what I sarcastically eluded to earlier and what Buck Junkie just spelled out in black and white it just adds insult to injury. Then if you consider the tax money that will be spent to fix the failing lock system on the river to haul their grain out or you start thinking about things like the ethanol subsidies that are helping drive the spike in grain prices............ Oh Lord I need the late season to get here.

 

[Buck Junkie]

Not trying to highjack the original thread, but thought i'd add a couple of thoughts. There are a number of influnces pushing commodity prices higher but the two that stand out IMO are ethanol & exports. There is an old saying in the commodity business "the higher the highs the lower the lows". Ethanol consumes nearly 40% of our nations corn crop. The ethanol industry, farmers/landowners, and rural america are experiencing a cyclical boom thanks in large part due to governmental policy (not often a industry receive a subsidy and a madate of usage)! Unfortunatly this comes at a cost to our wildlife. The idea that prices or should I say profit margins will remain at record high levels is absurd. You can already see the compression in the 2012 crop. Currently today with a Dec 2012 cash price for corn somewhere near $5.10/bu. farmers will need to deliever roughly 177 bu per acre just to breakeven (cost to produce is generally between $850 to $900 per acre). When the price of corn breaks lower look out. Most will not be able to reduce thier cost fast enough resulting in significant losses. At which point they will be more than willing to take the governments money and return the land to its "best" long term value as it will return better than if they had continuied to farm it!

 

[Daver]

Not trying to highjack the original thread, but thought i'd add a couple of thoughts. There are a number of influnces pushing commodity prices higher but the two that stand out IMO are ethanol & exports. There is an old saying in the commodity business "the higher the highs the lower the lows". Ethanol consumes nearly 40% of our nations corn crop. The ethanol industry, farmers/landowners, and rural america are experiencing a cyclical boom thanks in large part due to governmental policy (not often a industry receive a subsidy and a madate of usage)! Unfortunatly this comes at a cost to our wildlife. The idea that prices or should I say profit margins will remain at record high levels is absurd. You can already see the compression in the 2012 crop. Currently today with a Dec 2012 cash price for corn somewhere near $5.10/bu. farmers will need to deliever roughly 177 bu per acre just to breakeven (cost to produce is generally between $850 to $900 per acre). When the price of corn breaks lower look out. Most will not be able to reduce thier cost fast enough resulting in significant losses. At which point they will be more than willing to take the governments money and return the land to its "best" long term value as it will return better than if they had continuied to farm it!

Good posts. :way: I completely agree with you regarding the phenomenon of farmers making great profits during high market times but relying on government programs when things are tough. However, this is unfortunately a big trend in many other industries than just agriculture. We are seeing a strange brew of publically financed projects to shave the upfront cost for a developer/entrepreneur, etc, and then privatized profits. This is terribly bad public policy IMO, but becoming more common all the time.

 

[Highmark]

Not trying to highjack the original thread, but thought i'd add a couple of thoughts. There are a number of influnces pushing commodity prices higher but the two that stand out IMO are ethanol & exports. There is an old saying in the commodity business "the higher the highs the lower the lows". Ethanol consumes nearly 40% of our nations corn crop. The ethanol industry, farmers/landowners, and rural america are experiencing a cyclical boom thanks in large part due to governmental policy (not often a industry receive a subsidy and a madate of usage)! Unfortunatly this comes at a cost to our wildlife. The idea that prices or should I say profit margins will remain at record high levels is absurd. You can already see the compression in the 2012 crop. Currently today with a Dec 2012 cash price for corn somewhere near $5.10/bu. farmers will need to deliever roughly 177 bu per acre just to breakeven (cost to produce is generally between $850 to $900 per acre). When the price of corn breaks lower look out. Most will not be able to reduce thier cost fast enough resulting in significant losses. At which point they will be more than willing to take the governments money and return the land to its "best" long term value as it will return better than if they had continuied to farm it!

Can you break down that cost some. $850-$900 input costs seems a bit high to me.

Nevermind. Found some online.

http://www.extension.iastate.edu/agdm/crops/html/a1-20.html

 

[nannyslayer]

Can you break down that cost some. $850-$900 input costs seems a bit high to me.

That is a little high. I work up input cost for a living, so I'll just mimick one I just did this morning.


Cash rent 225
Seed corn 101
NH3 96
P&K 115
Chemical 52
Application 23.50
Crop Insur. 27

Grand Total of $639.50 per acre cost. At today's price of 5.67 cash bid at the elevator, they need 112.78 bushel to break even. Thats not even taking into consideration fuel and equipment, hauling, or storage.

I'm not going to even begin to say farmers aren't making money, but they are not rolling in cash like everyone out of the farming community thinks. It cost a lot to operate these days, but the only thing people see are the cash bid prices, and not the cost that goes into getting the crop planted, grown, and harvested. Input price's follow corn price. When corn prices are high, input prices go up a higher percentage than the increase of percentage of corn price.

 

[hunt iowa]

I live in Webster County. I am only current on one of the inputs you mention. Cash rents in this area are mostly in the $450 dollar per acre area. I do not think you can rent any highly productive land for $225 anymore. If you know of some there are a BUNCH of locals who will come farm it. It won't matter where it is in Iowa, they will "come".

 

[Buck Junkie]

Nannyslayer- I should have broken it down a little differently. Using your numbers, Input cost are $414.50 per acre plus cash rent of $225. One thing your leaving out is Machinery & Equipement costs to tillage, plant and harvest. Your also leaving out drying costs, fuel costs etc.

When I mentioned $850 to $900 it included Inputs and rent, which were $500 to $550 and $350, respectively. This is a rough range of what it will cost farmer "John" to plant corn next year (2012). The current cash bid for 2012 crops was $4.85 as of the end of last week. The cash bid you reference is for corn delivered today, and since you cannot deliver corn before its planted you must use the futures cash bid in your cash flow projections.

Trust me when I say 2012 cash flows will be squeezed if we dont have higher prices or higher yields.

 

[nannyslayer]

One thing your leaving out is Machinery & Equipement costs to tillage, plant and harvest. Your also leaving out drying costs, fuel costs etc.

The cash bid you reference is for corn delivered today, and since you cannot deliver corn before its planted you must use the futures cash bid in your cash flow projections.

That's why I said I didn't include harvest, planting, storage, (elevator or on farm with drying) fuel ect.

I know cash rents across the state are high, but our area hasn't gone stupid yet. 225 acre cash rent will still get you somewhat decent ground, although a lot of the big boys are starting to get competitive on some cash prices.

I also said off of today's market, so yes I do understand that you can't sell next years crop for today's cash market price. I was simply putting numbers together for people to see. I do about 65 cash flows a week, and so far they have all worked out, without having to have a record yield to break even.

 

[Buck Junkie]

I think were one the same page on this one. Cash rents can vary quite a bit and the average around NCIA is $275 to $325. I was attempting to support my opinion that farmers will need these higher grain prices and higher yields or thier margins will be crushed. All the cash flows I've seen are positive, but there is not a lot of wiggle room.

I dont know if to many operators that have the 2012 crop sold at this point (less than 30% according to a local coop), so cash flow will be greatly influenced by new crop prices.

 

[Buck Junkie]

I think were on the same page. Those other cost you left out still need to be thrown into the BE calculation. All the cash flows I've worked on appear to be in the black, but the margins are getting compressed. I don't think much of the 2012 crop has been marketed (about 30% according to a local coop), so thier cash flow will be very dependent on the future cash price. A $1.00 per buschel in either direction makes a huge difference in cash flow.

 

[Buck Junkie]

Sorry for the double post

 

[big+tall+mass]

Right, wrong, or indifferent, this is happening everywhere. Just wish so many of us weren't so money hungry. Not lookin forward to the future when my kids may possibly have no where to hunt. Be nice to see grain prices take a hit in the near future; along with a rise in interest rates.
As for pheasants, gonna take 3-5 years of mild winters and springs to bounce back; back to where the population was 15 years ago? No, but definitely will be a big improvement. Keep plantin cover and killin yotes...about the only thing some of us can control.

An advocate for ending antlerless seasons; our population is sustainable now DNR, move on to something else now, like canadian geese. Thank you.

 

[nannyslayer]

.

I dont know if to many operators that have the 2012 crop sold at this point (less than 30% according to a local coop), so cash flow will be greatly influenced by new crop prices.

According to Brock Marketing, 50% of everyone's crop SHOULD have been sold for next year at the end of September. Now reality, I would highly doubt there are many out there that has 20% sold as of today. In my opinion, next year will be a make or break year for many farmers. It hits their pocket books hard when you have a high input price that we have right now, and if market prices get soft, it will be the end of a lot of bigger operators that are operating off of rented ground.

 

[Highmark]

That is a little high. I work up input cost for a living, so I'll just mimick one I just did this morning.


Cash rent 225
Seed corn 101
NH3 96
P&K 115
Chemical 52
Application 23.50
Crop Insur. 27

Grand Total of $639.50 per acre cost. At today's price of 5.67 cash bid at the elevator, they need 112.78 bushel to break even. Thats not even taking into consideration fuel and equipment, hauling, or storage.

I'm not going to even begin to say farmers aren't making money, but they are not rolling in cash like everyone out of the farming community thinks. It cost a lot to operate these days, but the only thing people see are the cash bid prices, and not the cost that goes into getting the crop planted, grown, and harvested. Input price's follow corn price. When corn prices are high, input prices go up a higher percentage than the increase of percentage of corn price.

All things considering with input costs in the $700-$900 range I'd say $200 per Acre CRP payment is looking pretty good considering there is no risk. I just put about 1/3 of my 60 tillable acres in and am getting $203/acre.

At $5.00 corn you would need 180 b/a to break even with $900 input costs.