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Way too many deer

bowmaker

Member
I know that as I have said that I harp on the numbers aspect of this issue along with what I personally observe. If you take the time to look over the IDNR http://www.iowadnr.gov/wildlife/files/files/logbook_08log.pdf I hope that you will see the same things that I do, and that is that our deer hunting is regressing rapidly. Here are just a few of the thing I observed.
Year HARVEST #of Licenses Percentage
1996 107632 202834 53%
1997 118404 211118 56%
1998 112608 223419 50%
1999 121635 233690 52%
2000 126535 229800 55%

2008 142194 406169 35%

How many deer hunters thought we had way too many deer in 1996 to 2000. I don't ever remember hearing that statement made any where or any time during that time frame, do you? Did you also know that in 1996 only 35 counties were any sex during the 1st shotgun season, and that 26 counties were bucks only for the first 5 days of the 2nd shotgun season. Also in the year 2000 17 counties were bucks only for the first 3 days of the 1st shotgun season. Can you imagine that, the single most productive 3 days of the entire year and in 17 counties you could only shot bucks? Were there way too many does then?

Next is some info that should take the wind out of the insurance company's sails. In 2008 there were 10961 deer killed on the highways. In 1994 there were 10438 deer killed on the highways. Every year in between, the highway kill numbers were higher. The other number in this category is deer killed per billion miles driven. Guess what in 2008 that number was 602 and to get any lower number we go clear back to 1986 which was 593, with one exception, in1991 the number was 590. Still pretty close. So that means that there is much less chance of hitting a deer today than in, every year except one ,any year since 1986, again when no one uttered the words "Too many deer". The sad thing is none of our insurance rates are the same as in 1986 are they? Why would that be if the insurance companies are promoting killing more deer and especially more does when it can be proven that the deer killed per billion miles drives is at a 22 year low?

If we continue at the current rate of harvest we will end this season with a harvest of a little over 130,000 deer and this with around 400,000 licenses sold. This will give us the lowest success ratio since the IDNR has kept records on their website. That is based on 1987 to present data. Were there too many deer in 1987 when that success ratio was 49.5 percent (75,758 with 153,295 licenses sold)?

All this leads me to the conclusion that we actually have fewer deer in the State right now than we did in 1996, and that is based on the IDNR's own information. Think about this please in 1996 we harvested 107,632 deer but more importantly we had a success ratio of 53%. Now this year we will probably do a little over 130,000 deer. This year we have continuous seasons from September 15th to the end of January( the most hunting days than ever before in our recent history). This year we have around 400,000 licenses sold with almost 23,000 antler less tags still unsold. These licenses represent a record, or nearly so, number of deer hunters, who are way more educated and knowledgeable in the ways of deer. They also are the very best equipped in history, with better guns, ammo, sights and scopes, far better blinds and stands, superior clothing and boots and cold weather gear. Did you ever hear of any one in 1996 bragging about 2 inch groups at 150 yards from any muzzle loader or shotgun? Now we even allow rifles from .243 to .300 Winchester magnum to .458 if you want, capable of making killing shots on deer at 200 or 300 or even 400 yards. All of this but yet we are harvesting fewer and fewer deer each year. We either have a lot smaller deer herd or we have over half of our current deer hunters who are very stupid and inept at deer hunting. When no one complained about too many deer we had a success ratio of over 50%, but now that we are told we have too many deer we have dropped that ratio to only maybe 35%. How can that be?

I know that I complain a lot about this subject, both on here and to my legislators and to the IDNR. I send them lots of this stuff and a copy of this will go to Mr. Litchfield at the IDNR and I am still in hopes of getting a positive response. The way I see this issue is I am 60 years old now and at best I will maybe have another 10 years to hunt deer. You guys who are 30 or 40 now have lots of years left. My son is 36 and my pseudo grand children are 14 to 10 so this is very much an issue that they must face, so I am trying my best to help them. The deer hunting will not be able to rebound in my remaining 10 years, because we have taken it to far down hill, but I hope that my loved ones and all of you younger hunters on here have the chance to enjoy what I have had for 30 or so years. It took from 1954 until 2000 to get the harvest numbers up to 126,000, but only 4 years to drop it by 75,000. What will the next 4 years bring? As usual I will challenge any one to prove my theory and numbers wrong, and believe me I wish you would. I would much rather be wrong on this than have to go back to trying to draw any kind of a deer license in a draw lottery system so that I can enjoy hunting for one more year. I know that there are a growing number of you who are agreeing with me but those that do we need to express ourselves politely and articulately to those who can actually do something about this crisis that is looming on the horizon. As always thanks for listening. :way:
 
Thank you for taking the time to research that and writting a very well written post I have 3 young boys who will never experince the pheasant hunting oppurtunitys i once had im hoping they will be able to at least experince some good whitetail hunting
 
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I agree with your theories 100%. I believe with the lower population and hunter success the DNR will sell far fewer license in the future.

I remember hunting in the late 90's when does were mostly off limits while their numbers seemed to double every year. The DNR was slow to react to the population explosion and seem equally slow to react to the decline.

One big factor is access to good hunting land. We all know that alot of land has been bought or leased for hunting or bought by non hunters who deny access. In the area I hunt close to half the land that was accessible 10 years ago is now tightly restricted or closed off all together. The numbers and quality of the deer in my area have increased because of this and I'm not complaining, but the farmers aren't happy.

The best the DNR can do is manage by county and use depro tags for the hot spots. To me this is like performing surgery with an axe, deer live in a section or two not an entire county.
 
This is way embarrassing, but can any one tell me where to find an e-mail address for Mr. Litchfiedl or Willey Suchy. I sent this to Mr. Herring and Mr. Leopold but I have lost the other two address, so if you know please post for me and others who want to communicate with these people at the IDNR. Thanks
 
The question is,,with these statistics,,beyond dispute,,,how can the powers that be,,keep saying there are too many deer in Iowa? Of coarse, if you have the power,,and the platform, you can say anything you want. Few take the time to investigate, to find the truth.
 
This is way embarrassing, but can any one tell me where to find an e-mail address for Mr. Litchfiedl or Willey Suchy. I sent this to Mr. Herring and Mr. Leopold but I have lost the other two address, so if you know please post for me and others who want to communicate with these people at the IDNR. Thanks

All dnr use the same format for email, so if you know the correct spelling it is: john.doe@dnr.iowa.gov

In regards to the car accidents, I would like to see a map where the accidents occurred as I think they would trend towards area where hunting was restricted/prohibited (around cities, etc.).
 
WOW 400,000 tags sold and if you just figure that at least half of those are $27 tags that equals 5.4 million dollars just for anysex tags!! And they say they are out of money!! Probably more realistic that 3/4's of that number is anysex tags at $27 bucks a piece and I noticed that hunting and fishing license already went up!!!

The numbers dont lie and thank you very much for posting that info.
 
I also agree 100%. We as hunters have a lot of control believe it or not. It still saddens me when I check our harvest forum and the top one is the "Running Doe Count". I love harvest pics and stories, but I really don't think this is the right mentality to have about hunting. Unfortunately the years to come will show this.
 
I actually don't agree for once regarding the success ratio. I don't think the success ratio means anything and I think it is very skewed. Back in 96 we were limited by how many tags we could buy. We aren't anymore. Heck I bought at least a dozen tags this year just to have them in my pocket for a just in case moment. I didn't even try to fill them. Everyone I know buys tons of tags in all the counties they may or may not hunt just to have a tag in case they feel like shooting a doe. 9 times out of 10 the tag is a waste to even of purchased because it seems better to have a tag then go hunting and wish you had a tag. I bet I could round up 50 tags between me and a few buddies that were purchased with no REAL intentions of filling them.

This probably don't make any sense but I think a lot of the tags are bought just to have a tag. It sounds good at the time, but when reality sinks in, they won't get filled. Back in 96 you got a couple tags and you filled them because that is all you could get. It has changed for me and my group anyways.
 
I believe the DNR can say "there is to many deer" because when they take their airplane deer suveys or the drive around counts they do ,that they see a lot of deer in certain areas.But they don't take into accounts most of THOSE areas are not accessable.Leased or owned buy a big mangement groups.I also think "way to many deer" has a different meaning to hunters than it does to the DNR,the Non-hunting farmers and the insurance companies.Those groups would like to see 1/3 as many deer as there is and the hunters want to see twice as many as there is.
I have nothing against non-resident hunters but its a fact that the decline in hunter success is directly attributed to the state allowing non-resident deer hunting in Iowa years ago.By that I mean when that happened,thousands and thousands of acres of land was bought up or leased by non-residents that used to be accessable to anyone that would knock on a landowners door and ask permission.So...now deer are not being taken off those properties any longer.Besides the few the non-residents might take.I moved to southern Iowa 15 years ago.I have lost access to probably 1500-2000 acres of land that I used to hunt.The only places I have left to hunt are my little piece of land I own,public land and a couple farmer that will let everyone and their brother hunt.So its not really hunter success has dropped off because of lack of deer but lack of land to hunt.
 
Bowmaker, I always enjoy your posts. Your attention to detail and your willingness to do the research is well appreciated.

There are a couple of questions I would ask. Concerning success ratios over the years, have you controlled for the number of deer licenses that are bought on “spec”? In other words, I bought two doe tags for Clayton county bow this year and I did not get the opportunity to use them. In the past I have purchased many more doe tags than I needed. Most of them went unfilled not because of the population but because the time I had set aside to hunt disappeared. This is mainly due to the inexpensive doe tag of $11.00. I’ll gladly spend $11.00 with the thought that I’m only out $11.00 if I don’t get to go hunting. The other reason they go unfilled; it is unrealistic for me to believe if I have three doe tags in my pocket and three does show up I’ll be able to kill them all at the same time. Some hunters here could, but not me, I ain’t that good
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Another concern I have with the numbers is the huge change we had in the method of reporting kills. Back in the day when the harvest was strictly an estimate based on the number of tags sold and the number of hunter surveys retuned was the harvest over estimated? Or is the converse true that hunters are not calling in their kills? Either way the success ratio will be skewed, but which number is correct? My gestalt is the harvest is very under reported which would bring the success ratio up considerably. I believe if you ask the good folks at the DNR what the percentage of hunters reporting their kills are they would tell you around 90% based on in-field surveys. I kinda think that is a bit high based on anecdotal information we all have.

Which leads me to my next concern, how many deer hunters are there? If you add up the number of either sex tags sold for each season it comes to 125,475* so easy math says each hunter buys three tags. With an overall success ratio of 35% based on 400,000 tags sold does that mean on the average every hunter fills one tag? If so, is this so far off from the way it was “back in the day”?

I agree that the population is down as planed, but I always wonder about numbers and their application. If the DNR does not put the brakes on the doe harvest, and I trust the biologists not the budgetologists, the “less is better” pendulum will swing well past center before it returns to the established herd goals.

You can beat on the biologists all you want and it is important that they hear us, but unfortunately they don’t get to set policy. It is imperative that we beat on our elected officials who have oversight on the budget side of the DNR. And I do not mean to literally beat on them with blunt instruments, rather the new fangled sharp end of the pen called email.

Somebody wanted to see maps of high incidence deer/vehicle collisions. The DOT does indeed keep these map sets and it is indeed higher near more populated areas for the obvious reasons. The interesting thing on those maps is they can also pinpoint deer sanctuaries based on reported accidents and DOT carcass removal. The problem there is the sanctuary needs to be along a major road. The sanctuaries “out in the sticks” have less travel and therefore less deer/vehicle collisions and are harder to pin point with this method.

*This number does not include non residents and landowners.

The ‘Bonker
 
WOW 400,000 tags sold and if you just figure that at least half of those are $27 tags that equals 5.4 million dollars just for anysex tags!! And they say they are out of money!!

Iowa also sits last on the list for amount of dollars from license that go back into habitat for hunting, but they are first on the list for dollars used from hunting license to build bike trails. Pretty sad to me I dont want to buy a tag so some guy half the state away can ride his bike on a paved trail in the middle of timber.
 
Steve-O, one of the regulars posted this fall that 25% of the license sold are landowners. That suprised me but I guess more of our state is sold in small acreages for hunting.

I agree that doe tags are cheap and alot of guys don't really plan on filling them. Also most archery hunters are trophy hunters and don't mind eating a tag if the right buck doesn't come by.
 
Bonker, I will try to answer you questions as best that I see them.
First according to the DNR data for 2008 there were 406,169 licenses issued, that includes landowner, NR, youth, and for all seasons and both any sex and anterless. These were issued to 344,327 hunters. That only leaves 61,842 licenses that were issued to hunters already holding a regular tag. That means that the bulk of these extra licenses were sold at $27 rather than only $11. So if half of those were bought on spec that means that only 30,921 anterless tags were bought that way. I personally have never bought any license with intentions of NOT filling it, and I don't believe that these hunters did either. That means that if the potential to fill it were there that it would be filled, but since it wasn't filled reasoning says that the potential was not there. This could mean a hunter was just to lazy to go out, or that they didn't see any deer to shoot, or like maybe in your case they just couldn't hit them:rolleyes:. For what ever reason they went unfilled, but not because hunters just bought them to buy them all up. If you just use the 344,327 hunter numbers to show the harvest of 142,194 that still only yields success of 41 percent. That would mean the 59 percent of the best most well equipped hunters could not fill even 1 any sex tag in Iowa. That is 6 out of every 10 deer hunters could not get it done. I just have to think that represents a deer herd that is shrinking at an alarming rate.

Next is the reporting systems and the estimates of harvest. I understand your logic about the reporting before 2006, but I would ask you almost the same questions. In those prior years could it be that the reported harvest was actually understated, and the deer kill was actually much higher? That has just as much likelihood as being overstated doesn't it? As for the current reporting system being under reported, I just don't know. I have read posts saying that they heard or knew of POACHERS, because that is what they are if they don't follow the laws, who did not report their kills. I know I am pretty naive, but why would a hunter go to the trouble to buy all the licenses, use the proper weapons, deck themselves out in blaze orange, stick a transportation tag on a deer, and then never report it and risk the same basic punishments that other POACHERS risk? I also think that the people who post that they KNOW that someone wasn't reporting should report them to the TIP program just like they would if they were spotlighting or otherwise illegally killing deer. If you knew a spotlighter shooting deer with a rifle from a road at night I am sure you would make that call, as I have.

I feel that if the IDNR really believes that only 90 percent of kills are reported then they need to enact measures, such as spot checks or something, that would bring the buyers of licenses up close to 100 percent reporting. As I understand it a locker will not accept a deer with out the tag in place and the reporting number on it. Even if we buy into the 10 percent non-reported kills that only accounts for about 14,000 deer, so if we add that to the 142,194 reported that brings us to 156,194 which divided out by the total licenses of 406,169 gives a ratio of only 38 percent.

These numbers may not be perfect, and I in no way believe that they are, but they are based on the only available data that the IDNR is supplying us. There are many things that can skew the hunter harvest and success, but the traffic info has to be much more accurate. For the actual number of deer killed and the number per billion miles drives to be at 14 to 20 year lows has to indicate that the deer are disappearing rapidly, especially considering that most of these accidents were near urban areas with virtually unhuntable deer populations.

Thanks for the questions and making me re-look at things, but my position remains unchanged, we need to stop killing so many does and right now for a lot of places.:D
 
Somebody wanted to see maps of high incidence deer/vehicle collisions. The DOT does indeed keep these map sets and it is indeed higher near more populated areas for the obvious reasons. The interesting thing on those maps is they can also pinpoint deer sanctuaries based on reported accidents and DOT carcass removal. The problem there is the sanctuary needs to be along a major road. The sanctuaries “out in the sticks” have less travel and therefore less deer/vehicle collisions and are harder to pin point with this method.
If I was the somebody you are referring to, you might be missing what I was getting at, which the way I ramble, is completely possible. My point, if I can make it clearer, is that statistics can be spun to support the cause at hand. If the insurance companies can not use the deer/vehicle accidents around cities in their arguments (since hunting is for the most part prohibited or restricted in those areas), then they have fewer numbers to use on their behalf, thus weakening their case for increased licenses.

Statistics can be torn down from multiple angles. If I get the time and the drive, I might put together a rather long winded statistical rebuttal to Bowmaker's post.
 
Bowmaker, thank you for the reply. Can you tell me how to find the total number of hunters? At first look 344,327 seems kinda high. Given the population of Iowa is just a smidge over 3 million roughly 10% of the population hunts deer? I've never thought about what % of the population buys hunting and or fishing licenses. It could very well be that high. I just don't know.

The 'Bonker
 
If I was the somebody you are referring to, QUOTE]

I could remember a reply that talked about maps but not in what context so I just wrote about what I thought the question was about not that I ramble any more or less than anyone else that has a propoensity to ramble but the intersting thing about rambleing is how the ramble takes a rambler from one topic to another often with disjointed and abrubt turns of topic not that I would ever do that but I did once ride in a Rambler, I believe it was a Rambler Scrambler or something like that but it was after football practice in August back in the day when it was hot in August not cool like it is now global warming notwithstanding but my goodness hillary has aged she looks like my great aunt Sofie course she's been dead for quite some time the guy that dug her grave was a cousin of Kaiser Willhelm the guy could't speak english for crap but he could sure dig a nice grave I sure wish more convieneice store clerks spoke better english
am I rambleing again?

The 'Bonker
 
Bonker, this is from the site I referenced originally. This didn't put this table in the same format as on the DNR site. It can be found on the 2008 Trends in Iowa wildlife populations and Harvest. Clear down at the bottom it shows totals with the 406,169 licenses and the 344,32 hunters and the 142,194 harvest. Also thanks everyone for at least reading my Ramblings and I yield to a far superior RAMBLER, Bonker.

Table 1.1 A summary of the number of licenses issued, the number of deer harvested, and success
rates for the 2008-2009 season.
License Licenses Number of Success


Season Type Issued Hunters
c Harvest d Rate e
REGULAR GUN
Season 1 Paid Either-sex 63,397 63,397 29,124 46%
Antlerless 22,232 13,370 12,377 56%
Season 2 Either-sex 46,620 46,620 13,833 30%
Antlerless 18,393 10,728 7,996 43%
Nonresident Both 8,786 5,782 3,878 44%
Total


159,428 (+3%)a 139,897 67,208 (-5%) 42%
Season 1 & 2


Landowner Either-sex 25,011 25,011 6,866 27%
Antlerless 17,175 14,332 5,896 34%
Total


42,186 (+2%) 39,343 12,762 (-8%) 30%
GUN SEASON TOTAL 201,614 (+2%) 179,240 79,970 (-6%) 40%
MUZZLELOADER
Early Paid Either-sex 7,500 7,500 2,621 35%
Antlerless 1,813 1,371 843 46%
Landowner Both 3,185 3,092 878 28%
Total


12,498 (-1%) 11,963 4,342 (-3%) 35%
Late Paid Either-sex 18,364 18,364 4,604 25%
Antlerless 13,286 9,058 4,499 34%
Landowner Both 4,961 4,728 1,151 23%
Nonresident Both 1,778 889 666 37%
Total


38,389 (+5%) 33,039 10,920 (-2%) 28%
MUZZLELOADER TOTAL 50,887 (+3%) 45,002 15,262 (-2%) 30%
NOVEMBER ANTLERLESS SEASON
Paid Antlerless 11,192 8,949 3,492 31%
Landowner Antlerless 1,370 1,291 366 27%
Total 12,562 (+9%) 10,240 3,858 (-15%) 31%
JANUARY ANTLERLESS SEASON
Paid Antlerless 21,221 13,042 8,593 40%
Landowner Antlerless 8,434 7,875 1,551 18%
Total 29,655 (+10%) 20,917 10,144 (+12%) 34%
YOUTH Paid Both 8,392 8,034 3,259 39%
Landowner Both 196 177 59 30%
Disabled Both 251 185 87 35%
Total 8,839 (+7%) 8,396 3,405 (-3%) 39%
ARCHERY Paid Either-sex 49,953 49,953 11,105 22%
Antlerless 26,850 16,889 8,411 31%
Landowner Both 7,812 6,030 2,277 29%
Nonresident Both 4,200 2,100 1,281 31%
Total 88,815 (+4%) 74,972 23,074 (-3%) 26%
TOTAL


b 406,169 (+4%) 344,327 142,194 (-3%)
a


- the numbers in parentheses are the percent change from 2007-2008, NC = < 0.5%
b


- total include licenses and kill from hunts in special deer management zones and depredation licenses
c


- number of individuals with licenses, not comparable with previous years estimates
d


- reported kill, not comparable to estimates previous to 2006 hunting season
e - licenses reported successfully filled, not comparable to estimates previous to 2006 hunting season

This didn't put this table in the same format but you can find it on the DNR site under trends in iowa wildlife populations.

 
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