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Energy Demand

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I think it's going to be more like $900.00/acre by 2010.

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all4s...show me some of that $900 an acre ground in 2010 and I'll go to the bank for another loan.
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Ghost you better get out now while the gettings good. I'll give you $1500.
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How many pre-1980 cars do you see out driving around today?
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I have a 1977 Chevy Blazer
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My small engine salesman tells me not to run it in my chainsaw, lawnmower, or anything aircooled. Decreased performance and poorer fuel economy is not something that I look for in a fuel.
 
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How many pre-1980 cars do you see out driving around today?
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I have a 1977 Chevy Blazer
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My small engine salesman tells me not to run it in my chainsaw, lawnmower, or anything aircooled. Decreased performance and poorer fuel economy is not something that I look for in a fuel.

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Well Don, I guess it depends on who you want to believe...
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Myth-Busters
 
Ghost, i take back all those things i have said about you!
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We'll almost everything, you still live in southern Iowa
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I was talking to someone last week that said something about using switchgrass much like corn for energy. I think his son has some ground in a test program for either University of Nebraska or Kansas State University. If this was to take hold would it help or hurt the hunting of game birds and deer.

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I read a study where they mowed and baled switch, hauling it to a plant that burned it to generate electricity. Between mowing, baling and trucking, it wasn't economically feasible, though it was "green".

Much research is being conducted on fermentation of biomass rather than corn starch. If they find some microbe that creates ethanol from cellulose (majority of most plants), then they really have something!

I have heard some people wish that switch grass worked as they think it would be better for wildlife. If switch is mowed in the fall, there isn't much cover for winter. You would have pheasant nesting and fawning in the spring, though. My choice of switch grass stubble or corn stubble over the winter would be corn, as there will be waste grain for wildlife food.
 
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I think it's going to be more like $900.00/acre by 2010. Over 90% of the corn that goes into ethanol production comes out as cattle feed. If they were able to produce something real like plywood then, ethanol might have a sustainable future. Take away the gov. subs. given to these ethanol plants and you will see an implousion within the industry. Sell...sell..sell.

I am not Jim Kramer from Mad Money or a financial consultant but I did stay at a Holiday Inn last night
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hunt on all4s

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Tell that to the bean-counters that are building a 500+ million dollar plant on the south side of Cedar Rapids. These guys have analysist that analyze their analysist, and they wouldn't build it if it wasn't going to make them money.
 
Good thing hunting in MN where I'm at isn't good to begin with, then if that kind of stuff moves up here and I'm still stuck up here I got nuthin' to worry about with the decreasing animal population and difficulties getting permission due to all this corn mumbo jumbo cause it's so poor to begin with!
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Damn I gotta stop with these MN jabs and just move.
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Critrgtr,
They might build it if the government is giving them money to do it.
I have heard of it being done before.
 
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Critrgtr,
They might build it if the government is giving them money to do it.
I have heard of it being done before.

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I wish.....might help my paycheck a little.
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They already supply around 50% of the ethanol produced nationally.
 
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Much research is being conducted on fermentation of biomass rather than corn starch. If they find some microbe that creates ethanol from cellulose (majority of most plants), then they really have something!


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I think in time you'll find that they will move away from corn and to cellulistic ethanol.

We simply cannot grow enough corn to supply the demand. Huge grants are being given to currently operating ethanol plants to start converting to cellulistic production.

Brazil is already years ahead of us using sugarcane and are preparing to put a pipeline out to ocean ports.

As for converting CRP...I would much rather see it in switchgrass for ethanol production...then corn and watching our soil end up in the Gulf of Mexico...
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10 years ago I told people that ground would hit a thousand and acre within 5 years...they laughed like I was a lunatic.

I don't know where or if it will top out...but $900 an acre is gone forever...
 
I think the next few years will be very interesting. I don't know where this E85 thing is going but I really think that the corn based programs will run it's course in a short time. I do believe that we need some kind of alternative fuels, but E85 still relies on oil for part of the production. Also I have read that it takes as much or more energy to convert corn to ethenol as it actually produces. If they can get a program for switch grass it will be much more energy efficent and enviromental friendly.

Just because a vehicle is labeled flex-fuel dosn't mean it will burn E85, in fact almost all will not. Only a few vehicles produced in the last couple years are recommended for E85 usage. From an economy view point the E85 will normally pruduce lower miles per gallon than unleaded regular fuel, but the price per gallon is proportantly less. In real world numbers E85 actually cost about the same or maybe just a little more that gasoline per mile driven. One big advantage to E85 is the fact it is renewable and should help reduce our absolute dependence on foreign or crude oil in general. I think that the biggest advantage is that it is another step up the ladder toward more efficent sources of real renewable energy rather than to just continue to fall back to oil because it is easier and we are fimilar with it. It has taken 25 years for ethanol blended fuel to be accepted and cost efficent in the midwest. Just think where we might be if that 25 years had been really used to develope more types of fuels and motors to use them rather than just burning 10% ethanol and 90% gas to get by. I see this E85 as a bridge to much better things and a realization that we can no longer just get by. While the economic boom of $4.00 corn will put a lot of money in the pockets of farmers, I fear it will be detrimental to our lands, especially here in SE Iowa. I can see CRP fields being planted to corn, bean acres planted to corn, and large amounts of deer holding timber and draws bulldozed flat just to plant more $4.00 corn. While this corn craze will fade in a few years much of timber and brush lands can't possibly be the same for 50 or 100 years, if ever. I hope that we don't abandon conservation programs built up over decades just to supply E85 for a few years!
 
Des Moines Resister article today...
"With corn prices soaring, Iowa landowners plan to remove nearly 316,000 acres from a land-conservation program between this fall and 2010"
Couple of other recent articles.

Report: Squeezing profit from ethanol to get harder
The findings are prepared for Congress. Much depends on what happens to the price of oil, economists say.

By PHILIP BRASHER
REGISTER WASHINGTON BUREAU
Washington, D.C. - High corn prices could wipe out much of the profit in the ethanol industry for years to come, economists say.

Net operating returns for the ethanol industry will drop to 28 cents a gallon this year, down from 61 cents last year, according to a report prepared for Congress by the University of Missouri's Food and Agricultural Policy Research Institute.

The economists see the operating margin slipping eventually to 19 cents a gallon by 2012. Plants need to make about 20 cents a gallon to cover capital costs, so the decline in margins will discourage construction of plants, said Pat Westhoff, the institute's program director.

"That slows investment dramatically," he said.

But a lot depends on the price of oil, Westhoff said.

The price of ethanol tends to follow the price of oil and gasoline. The estimates in the research institute report are based on projections that the price of oil will fall from about $60 a barrel last year to $50 a barrel by 2016.

David Nelson, chairman of Global Ethanol LLC, which operates a plant at Lakota, said oil prices are likely to be higher. "I'd be surprised if the world is going to keep it at $50 a barrel," he said.

The report predicts U.S. ethanol production rising sharply in the next couple of years, as new plants come on line, then expanding relatively slowly from 2010 through 2016.

Economists see a similar crunch for biodiesel due to the soaring price of soybeans.

Ex-Iowa workers are sued to shield ethanol secrets
They worked in Jewell and learned confidential methods before switching jobs, the lawsuit says.

By JEFF MARTIN
SIOUX FALLS (S.D.) ARGUS LEADER
In a case that underscores how competitive the ethanol industry has become, an ethanol maker is suing two former Iowa employees to protect its trade secrets and keep them from a rival.

Broin and Associates claims it has developed technology that make its ethanol plants some of the most profitable in the industry.

In a federal lawsuit, Broin says two employees of a Broin-affiliated ethanol plant in Jewell, north of Ames, learned confidential information and trade secrets about Broin's ethanol production methods.

Then, the Iowa employees left to work with Colorado's first ethanol plant - a direct competitor of Broin, the lawsuit alleges.

In going to Colorado, the employees broke agreements not to compete with Broin, according to the lawsuit.

Broin has designed, engineered and built more than 25 ethanol plants across the United States, and is building one of the first plants to produce ethanol from corn cobs, in addition to the grain.

Defendants in the lawsuit are Gary T. Hanson, former operations manager at the Horizon Ethanol plant, which began operations about one year ago.

Also named as a defendant is Robert A. Akers, a former maintenance technician at Horizon.

"Broin and Associates licensed to Horizon Ethanol proprietary technology, design information, and operational information," the lawsuit states. "The licensed technology included trade secrets, formulas, research data, processes, know-how, and specifications related to Broin and Associates' design and construction of the ethanol facility."

Hanson resigned from the Iowa plant Dec. 18 and became affiliated with Sterling Ethanol LLC in northeast Colorado, according to the lawsuit. Akers resigned Jan. 22 and also went to Sterling, Broin maintains.

Those job moves violated agreements that they not compete with Broin-affiliated plants, the lawsuit states.

Akers' lawyer, Stu Cochrane of Des Moines, said the lawsuit misrepresents the situation.

For one thing, Cochrane said, Akers was not involved in producing ethanol. Rather, he was a maintenance worker who made $13 an hour, and he went to Colorado to try to make a better life for his family, Cochrane said.

"He wouldn't know a trade secret if he saw one," Cochrane said. "He had nothing to do with anything that was remotely confidential for that plant. He essentially fixed broken equipment."

Akers had no contact with customers, wasn't involved in marketing efforts, and "the suggestion that he's now harming them is ridiculous." Cochrane added that Akers "is no threat in any way, and he never has been."

Hanson could not be reached Tuesday for comment.

Sioux Falls lawyer Tim Shattuck, who is representing Broin and Horizon, said it's their policy not to comment on pending lawsuits.

Among other things, Broin's lawsuit seeks injunctions preventing the two men from working with Sterling, and stopping them from sharing confidential information.

Sterling Ethanol has 30 employees and operates 24 hours a day.

Its owners are building another plant 40 miles south of it. They have plans for three more facilities, the Rocky Mountain News newspaper of Denver reported in January.
 
I have an in-law that has worked at ADM since the very beginning. He mentioned that they can purchase corn directly from South American countries like Argentina and Brazil at less than half the cost locally, even when you include shipping. He was quick to add that it's of lesser quality, but that for their purposes it didn't matter much.

Much like anything, if the demand goes up, so will the supply...the cost will level out, and may actually bottom out if too many people jump on the bandwagon, resulting in excess supply. In the long run, renewable/sustainable resources will never match the high prices of fossil fuels, which are a fixed resource.

I agree that they should ditch the subsidies...for the ethanol plants AND for farmers.
 
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I agree that they should ditch the subsidies...for the ethanol plants AND for farmers.

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That's fine, but don't think farmers are going to double their money now that corn is at 4 bucks. As with everything, supply and demand will keep most of them in check. The price of seed, fertilizer, pesticides, herbicides and labor for all of the above mentioined will increase as well. Add to it the high cost of diesel fuel, even at a farmers price, and the increase of rent on ground that they don't own, and I'm not sure they'll be a whole lot better off than they are already. If I had to guess though, I'd be willing to bet most of them would rather make their own money with higher priced grain, as opposed to having to deal with FSA offices and listening to their non-farmer neighbors cry about the subsidies they're getting.
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As for the article on the CRP not being reenrolled the majority of this was not reenrolled by FSA most of these contracts were redone before the corn prices went crazy. It seems that this was a way for the Feds to wean away from CRP and Subsidies.It would be interesting to know if the total amount saved by the Govt from exp CRP and LDP payments exceeds the total in incentives to the Ethanol plants I would bet that it is.
 
Dont know about the ethenal but just donated $34,000 to the big biodiesel
plant in Lamoni Ia. I have a feeling this will work itself into a descent payout. Bioenergy will be a thing of the future!
 
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The price of ethanol tends to follow the price of oil and gasoline. The estimates in the research institute report are based on projections that the price of oil will fall from about $60 a barrel last year to $50 a barrel by 2016.


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I'd love to be able to go back and look at the comments in this thread in 2016
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Oil has dropped but gas and dsl have went up .02 to .030 cents a gallon!!
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I don't think there is any worries of bio-fuel plants going under.

There is an excellent article in the most recent Pheasants Forever mag. about biofuels and how it could affect CRP and land use.

It takes far less fuel to produce cellulistic bio-fuel then that produced from corn and 238% more energy can be produced per acre from a mix of prairie grasses and forbs then even that of a monoculture of switchgrass.

Good habitat mangement would mean alternating fields harvested or leaving nesting areas versus mowing the entire farm every year.

How many of you have switched to flourescent lighting?

I keep getting notices from my electric co-op that prices are on the rise so I combat it anyway I can with energy saving ideas.

As costs of moving coal and buying natural gas continue to rise, wind farms become more and more practical.

Iowa is on the forefront of alternative energy of all kinds including a "stored energy park" to store wind energy!
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Iowa Stored Energy Park

The production and use of gasoline didn't happen over night and niether will alternative energy...but the future is happening...now!
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