Alright one last piece of info for people to think about. If you purchased land in 1981 for the average sale price at that time, $2147.00 or $3633 adjusted for inflation, then it took you until 2002 to get back to even not counting inflation or 2008 if you adjust for inflation. Again, I am not trying to be debbie downer here on real estate but I want people to know that people can and do loose money of land.
I know several families that were big into farming that bought a lot of high dollar land in the early 80's that never survived the downturn. I couldn't agree more that land is one of the most sound investments that exist for capital preservation but timing is key. To make the mistake of buying at the top and having to wait over 20 years to get your money back is probably not what most people are looking for.
I think JDubs hit the nail of the head which is to buy at bottom and sell at the top. I guess the question is where are we currently at? The numbers sure seem to look like the top to me. Here is my source so if my numbers are off take it up with Mr. Duffy.
<TABLE style="TABLE-LAYOUT: fixed; WIDTH: 384pt; BORDER-COLLAPSE: collapse" cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 width=512 border=0><COLGROUP><COL style="WIDTH: 48pt" span=8 width=64><TBODY><TR style="HEIGHT: 15.75pt" height=21><TD class=xl718183 style="BORDER-RIGHT: black 0.5pt solid; WIDTH: 384pt; HEIGHT: 15.75pt" width=512 colSpan=8 height=21>Iowa Statewide Farmland Values</TD></TR><TR style="HEIGHT: 51pt" height=68><TD class=xl638183 style="WIDTH: 48pt; HEIGHT: 51pt" width=64 height=68>Year</TD><TD class=xl648183 style="WIDTH: 48pt" width=64>Price per Acre</TD><TD class=xl648183 style="WIDTH: 48pt" width=64>GDP Implicit Price Deflator</TD><TD class=xl808183 style="WIDTH: 48pt" width=64>Price in '2000' Dollars</TD><TD class=xl658183 style="WIDTH: 48pt" width=64>Year</TD><TD class=xl648183 style="WIDTH: 48pt" width=64>Price per Acre</TD><TD class=xl648183 style="WIDTH: 48pt" width=64>GDP Implicit Price Deflator</TD><TD class=xl808183 style="WIDTH: 48pt" width=64>Price in '2000' Dollars</TD></TR><TR style="HEIGHT: 12.75pt" height=17><TD class=xl698183 style="BORDER-TOP: medium none; HEIGHT: 12.75pt" height=17>60</TD><TD class=xl708183 style="BORDER-TOP: medium none">$237</TD><TD class=xl748183>21.00</TD><TD class=xl758183 style="BORDER-TOP: medium none; BORDER-LEFT: medium none">$1,129</TD><TD class=xl778183 style="BORDER-TOP: medium none">84</TD><TD class=xl678183>$1,357</TD><TD class=xl748183>67.70</TD><TD class=xl678183>$2,004</TD></TR><TR style="HEIGHT: 12.75pt" height=17><TD class=xl668183 style="HEIGHT: 12.75pt" height=17>61</TD><TD class=xl678183>$237</TD><TD class=xl748183>21.20</TD><TD class=xl768183 style="BORDER-LEFT: medium none">$1,118</TD><TD class=xl778183 style="BORDER-TOP: medium none">85</TD><TD class=xl678183>$948</TD><TD class=xl748183>69.70</TD><TD class=xl678183>$1,360</TD></TR><TR style="HEIGHT: 12.75pt" height=17><TD class=xl668183 style="HEIGHT: 12.75pt" height=17>62</TD><TD class=xl678183>$241</TD><TD class=xl748183>21.50</TD><TD class=xl768183 style="BORDER-LEFT: medium none">$1,121</TD><TD class=xl788183>86</TD><TD class=xl678183>$787</TD><TD class=xl748183>71.30</TD><TD class=xl678183>$1,104</TD></TR><TR style="HEIGHT: 12.75pt" height=17><TD class=xl668183 style="HEIGHT: 12.75pt" height=17>63</TD><TD class=xl678183>$250</TD><TD class=xl748183>21.80</TD><TD class=xl768183 style="BORDER-LEFT: medium none">$1,147</TD><TD class=xl788183>87</TD><TD class=xl678183>$875</TD><TD class=xl748183>73.20</TD><TD class=xl678183>$1,195</TD></TR><TR style="HEIGHT: 12.75pt" height=17><TD class=xl668183 style="HEIGHT: 12.75pt" height=17>64</TD><TD class=xl678183>$265</TD><TD class=xl748183>22.10</TD><TD class=xl768183 style="BORDER-LEFT: medium none">$1,199</TD><TD class=xl788183>88</TD><TD class=xl678183>$1,054</TD><TD class=xl748183>75.70</TD><TD class=xl678183>$1,392</TD></TR><TR style="HEIGHT: 12.75pt" height=17><TD class=xl668183 style="HEIGHT: 12.75pt" height=17>65</TD><TD class=xl678183>$293</TD><TD class=xl748183>22.50</TD><TD class=xl768183 style="BORDER-LEFT: medium none">$1,302</TD><TD class=xl788183>89</TD><TD class=xl678183>$1,139</TD><TD class=xl748183>78.60</TD><TD class=xl678183>$1,449</TD></TR><TR style="HEIGHT: 12.75pt" height=17><TD class=xl668183 style="HEIGHT: 12.75pt" height=17>66</TD><TD class=xl678183>$354</TD><TD class=xl748183>23.20</TD><TD class=xl768183 style="BORDER-LEFT: medium none">$1,526</TD><TD class=xl788183>90</TD><TD class=xl678183>$1,214</TD><TD class=xl748183>81.60</TD><TD class=xl678183>$1,488</TD></TR><TR style="HEIGHT: 12.75pt" height=17><TD class=xl668183 style="HEIGHT: 12.75pt" height=17>67</TD><TD class=xl678183>$397</TD><TD class=xl748183>23.90</TD><TD class=xl768183 style="BORDER-LEFT: medium none">$1,661</TD><TD class=xl788183>91</TD><TD class=xl678183>$1,219</TD><TD class=xl748183>84.40</TD><TD class=xl678183>$1,444</TD></TR><TR style="HEIGHT: 12.75pt" height=17><TD class=xl668183 style="HEIGHT: 12.75pt" height=17>68</TD><TD class=xl678183>$409</TD><TD class=xl748183>24.90</TD><TD class=xl768183 style="BORDER-LEFT: medium none">$1,643</TD><TD class=xl788183>92</TD><TD class=xl678183>$1,249</TD><TD class=xl748183>86.40</TD><TD class=xl678183>$1,446</TD></TR><TR style="HEIGHT: 12.75pt" height=17><TD class=xl668183 style="HEIGHT: 12.75pt" height=17>69</TD><TD class=xl678183>$419</TD><TD class=xl748183>26.10</TD><TD class=xl768183 style="BORDER-LEFT: medium none">$1,605</TD><TD class=xl788183>93</TD><TD class=xl678183>$1,275</TD><TD class=xl748183>88.40</TD><TD class=xl678183>$1,442</TD></TR><TR style="HEIGHT: 12.75pt" height=17><TD class=xl668183 style="HEIGHT: 12.75pt" height=17>70</TD><TD class=xl678183>$419</TD><TD class=xl748183>27.50</TD><TD class=xl768183 style="BORDER-LEFT: medium none">$1,524</TD><TD class=xl788183>94</TD><TD class=xl678183>$1,356</TD><TD class=xl748183>90.30</TD><TD class=xl678183>$1,502</TD></TR><TR style="HEIGHT: 12.75pt" height=17><TD class=xl668183 style="HEIGHT: 12.75pt" height=17>71</TD><TD class=xl678183>$430</TD><TD class=xl748183>28.90</TD><TD class=xl768183 style="BORDER-LEFT: medium none">$1,488</TD><TD class=xl788183>95</TD><TD class=xl678183>$1,455</TD><TD class=xl748183>92.10</TD><TD class=xl678183>$1,580</TD></TR><TR style="HEIGHT: 12.75pt" height=17><TD class=xl668183 style="HEIGHT: 12.75pt" height=17>72</TD><TD class=xl678183>$482</TD><TD class=xl748183>30.20</TD><TD class=xl768183 style="BORDER-LEFT: medium none">$1,596</TD><TD class=xl788183>96</TD><TD class=xl678183>$1,682</TD><TD class=xl748183>93.90</TD><TD class=xl678183>$1,791</TD></TR><TR style="HEIGHT: 12.75pt" height=17><TD class=xl668183 style="HEIGHT: 12.75pt" height=17>73</TD><TD class=xl678183>$635</TD><TD class=xl748183>31.90</TD><TD class=xl768183 style="BORDER-LEFT: medium none">$1,991</TD><TD class=xl788183>97</TD><TD class=xl678183>$1,837</TD><TD class=xl688183>96.80</TD><TD class=xl678183>$1,898</TD></TR><TR style="HEIGHT: 12.75pt" height=17><TD class=xl668183 style="HEIGHT: 12.75pt" height=17>74</TD><TD class=xl678183>$834</TD><TD class=xl748183>34.70</TD><TD class=xl768183 style="BORDER-LEFT: medium none">$2,403</TD><TD class=xl788183>98</TD><TD class=xl678183>$1,801</TD><TD class=xl688183>97.00</TD><TD class=xl678183>$1,857</TD></TR><TR style="HEIGHT: 12.75pt" height=17><TD class=xl668183 style="HEIGHT: 12.75pt" height=17>75</TD><TD class=xl678183>$1,095</TD><TD class=xl748183>37.90</TD><TD class=xl768183 style="BORDER-LEFT: medium none">$2,889</TD><TD class=xl788183>99</TD><TD class=xl678183>$1,781</TD><TD class=xl688183>98.00</TD><TD class=xl678183>$1,817</TD></TR><TR style="HEIGHT: 12.75pt" height=17><TD class=xl668183 style="HEIGHT: 12.75pt" height=17>76</TD><TD class=xl678183>$1,368</TD><TD class=xl748183>40.20</TD><TD class=xl768183 style="BORDER-LEFT: medium none">$3,403</TD><TD class=xl788183>00</TD><TD class=xl678183>$1,857</TD><TD class=xl688183>100.00</TD><TD class=xl678183>$1,857</TD></TR><TR style="HEIGHT: 12.75pt" height=17><TD class=xl668183 style="HEIGHT: 12.75pt" height=17>77</TD><TD class=xl678183>$1,450</TD><TD class=xl748183>42.80</TD><TD class=xl768183 style="BORDER-LEFT: medium none">$3,388</TD><TD class=xl798183>01</TD><TD class=xl678183>$1,926</TD><TD class=xl688183>102.40</TD><TD class=xl678183>$1,881</TD></TR><TR style="HEIGHT: 12.75pt" height=17><TD class=xl668183 style="HEIGHT: 12.75pt" height=17>78</TD><TD class=xl678183>$1,646</TD><TD class=xl748183>45.80</TD><TD class=xl768183 style="BORDER-LEFT: medium none">$3,594</TD><TD class=xl788183>02</TD><TD class=xl678183>$2,083</TD><TD class=xl688183>104.20</TD><TD class=xl678183>$1,999</TD></TR><TR style="HEIGHT: 12.75pt" height=17><TD class=xl668183 style="HEIGHT: 12.75pt" height=17>79</TD><TD class=xl678183>$1,958</TD><TD class=xl748183>49.50</TD><TD class=xl768183 style="BORDER-LEFT: medium none">$3,956</TD><TD class=xl788183>03</TD><TD class=xl678183>$2,275</TD><TD class=xl688183>106.40</TD><TD class=xl678183>$2,138</TD></TR><TR style="HEIGHT: 12.75pt" height=17><TD class=xl668183 style="HEIGHT: 12.75pt" height=17>80</TD><TD class=xl678183>$2,066</TD><TD class=xl748183>54.00</TD><TD class=xl768183 style="BORDER-LEFT: medium none">$3,826</TD><TD class=xl788183>04</TD><TD class=xl678183>$2,629</TD><TD class=xl688183>109.50</TD><TD class=xl678183>$2,401</TD></TR><TR style="HEIGHT: 12.75pt" height=17><TD class=xl668183 style="HEIGHT: 12.75pt" height=17>81</TD><TD class=xl678183>$2,147</TD><TD class=xl748183>59.10</TD><TD class=xl768183 style="BORDER-LEFT: medium none">$3,633</TD><TD class=xl788183>05</TD><TD class=xl678183>$2,914</TD><TD class=xl688183>113.00</TD><TD class=xl678183>$2,579</TD></TR><TR style="HEIGHT: 12.75pt" height=17><TD class=xl668183 style="HEIGHT: 12.75pt" height=17>82</TD><TD class=xl678183>$1,801</TD><TD class=xl748183>62.70</TD><TD class=xl768183 style="BORDER-LEFT: medium none">$2,872</TD><TD class=xl788183>06</TD><TD class=xl678183>$3,204</TD><TD class=xl688183>116.70</TD><TD class=xl678183>$2,746</TD></TR><TR style="HEIGHT: 12.75pt" height=17><TD class=xl668183 style="HEIGHT: 12.75pt" height=17>83</TD><TD class=xl678183>$1,691</TD><TD class=xl748183>65.20</TD><TD class=xl768183 style="BORDER-LEFT: medium none">$2,594</TD><TD class=xl788183>07</TD><TD class=xl678183>$3,908</TD><TD class=xl688183>119.80</TD><TD class=xl678183>$3,262</TD></TR><TR style="HEIGHT: 12.75pt; mso-height-source: userset" height=17><TD class=xl698183 style="BORDER-TOP: medium none; HEIGHT: 12.75pt" height=17>84</TD><TD class=xl678183>$1,357</TD><TD class=xl748183>67.70</TD><TD class=xl768183 style="BORDER-LEFT: medium none">$2,004</TD><TD class=xl778183 style="BORDER-TOP: medium none">08</TD><TD class=xl678183>$4,468</TD><TD class=xl688183>122.50</TD><TD class=xl678183>$3,647</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>