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Triple digits

Thinkin Rut

Thinkin Rut

PMA Member
Everyone is discussing the perfect storm as far as the deer population goes, I'm thinking perfect storm for plummeting Rec land values. We should bottom out in the 80K area for harvest numbers in the next few years and that will become the new norm, 100K will be celebrated. Corn and bean prices down and seem comfortable there. Interest rates bumping up with nowhere else to go but higher. NR flood gates opened should yield just a trickle in this environment. Am I all wrong on this? Is it just too logical? Maybe the same uninformed hunters who are out shooting the leftover does and shed bucks will step to the plate and keep the rec land values propped up. When reality sets in and fear replaces it, it will send land values down...will rec land hit sub-$1000 an acre? This may be extreme but something to ponder.
 
Wishfull thinking to someone young like myself with hopes to buy some more land in the future. I guess I don't see it getting much below what it is now. I think farm land may dip some or level off, but rec. land will stay about where it is.
 
I like ur thinking and thought process. What I actually think will happen is more guys making land ownership happen as its really the best and only way to insulate from all the crap happening. U will still be impacted but the more ground U own the better. Can at least manage. I don't see a huge reduction in prices. Maybe a dip with Ag values but it'll come back. I'm buying as much of my neigbors land as I can. Long term if NR tag allocations r increased- whoa- prices will get insane.
 
I truly believe guys like Winke are having more EHD issues that neighbor/herd issues. But as he sees that he is forced into the realization of what the rest of the state is facing and is making a case to protect his "industry."
 
It would be nice for me if the OP turned out to be correct. Sligh points out the way my mind is going, I need to control my own land if I want to insure myself decent hunting.

I would love to have Winke's "problem".
 
Some advice for younger investors hoping land values will decrease, don't hold your breath. Everytime I've waited to buy I look back and said I should have bought then because the price keeps going upward.
 
Thinkin Rut said:
Everyone is discussing the perfect storm as far as the deer population goes, I'm thinking perfect storm for plummeting Rec land values. We should bottom out in the 80K area for harvest numbers in the next few years and that will become the new norm, 100K will be celebrated. Corn and bean prices down and seem comfortable there. Interest rates bumping up with nowhere else to go but higher. NR flood gates opened should yield just a trickle in this environment. Am I all wrong on this? Is it just too logical? Maybe the same uninformed hunters who are out shooting the leftover does and shed bucks will step to the plate and keep the rec land values propped up. When reality sets in and fear replaces it, it will send land values down...will rec land hit sub-$1000 an acre? This may be extreme but something to ponder.
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We can only hope it would be the only way a normal human being could afford to buu a piece of property
 
Thinkin Rut said:
It hasn't helped Winke.
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I like Bill Winke, simply my favorite outdoor guy, but he doesn't have a big problem really. He just shot (2) 200 inch bucks either last year or the year before, I can't remember.

This year he is seeing fewer deer, but they didn't exactly put up a goose-egg on his property.
 
I do think land values are about to drop a bit. Tillable is already starting to correct. If we have $4 corn for two years or more, then it will drop even more. Rec land I think will stay fairly strong, unless we have another 2008 meltdown in the market and the commodities go down with it.
 
All this stuff does hurt the landowners like winke. It hurts them less and they can recover a lot better. The worst case for winke is he has a yr or 2 here or there without a mammoth buck & maybe mediocre deer levels. It's NEVER going to b a catastrophy like some areas in norther 2/3rds of state or certain blocks blown to piss. He will always have "good hunting" on average. Hurts us all but bigger land owners much less.
 
I think we as hunters are all a victim of too many damn seasons. In MN we have added 19 days of gun and muzzleloader since the year 2002. Guess what has happened.

Iowa has seen similar things happen.

The answer---fewer and shorter seasons and the quality will increase.

Back to land values, it's very possible, lower deer numbers and lower quality could lead to fewer buyers??
 
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Land is only worth what someone is willing to pay... no deer= not as many that will be willing to pay top dollar.. sellers get in a pinch, want to rid themselves of that 160 ac of wastland ex hunting ground, they bend a little at the next few offers until the cant anymore...and sell for a couple hundred lower per acre than the asking price. Seller comes out with cash in pocket, buyer comes out on top in long run.

Hey, it could happen! Lol
 
I actually hope land prices come down! I do think there could b short term corrections but long term it'll be up & no concern to me. IMO. I hope it comes down 50% and if buy more. Don't think it'll ever happen to a significant degree though. Who knows- financial experts in every category r often wrong.
 
It's been one of my goals to own some rec ground some day and the deer population dropping so quickly I do believe will make rec prices drop, but no way to triple digits. The only good thing about the pop dropping in my mind is that it will make less people be interested in deer hunting etc making access/land prices drop.
 
supserdave said:
Wishfull thinking to someone young like myself with hopes to buy some more land in the future. I guess I don't see it getting much below what it is now. I think farm land may dip some or level off, but rec. land will stay about where it is.
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I hope they come down.. my goal is to buy as soon as I graduate college.( two years). I've been looking already trying to get ideas. Just hope prices come down a bit
 
I don't think it will ever go down.
Unfortunate for me, as I would love to have my own place but don't think I will ever be able to afford it. I know prices will fluctuate a little, but I look at it as general inflation along with everything else in life. I think the days of triple digits are long gone.
 
i've been meaning to reply to a lot of the hot topics on here lately. The Sate of Iowa vs the NR, Tracy Templetons letter, the Governor on Winkes show, etc.

I'm a NRLO and and have been lurking on this site for a while. I first came to Iowa about 10 years ago and fell in love with the place. I ended up slowly buying land. I don't want the laws to change concerning NRLO and we let a resident neighbor have very easy access to our land to hunt with his family and friends, it is a win win situation for both of us because we value his friendship, honesty and now his hospitality, and he looks over our land like it is his.

Concerning Recreational land prices and values, someone already said it is only worth what someone will pay for it. My brother and I bought a 40 . I still feel we grossly over paid for that first piece, but my 1/2 share cost me less then what a loaded full size F250 4 x 4 is going for these days. With a car loan you can pay off in 5 years do the math, almost any motivated person can afford land if they want it bad enough. I do construction work so I went on a limb but still pulled it off. We have now added to that first piece and will never look back

I wish I would have bought when land was 1000 an acre, and in 10 years people will say I wish I bought when land was 2000 an acre.

Everything in this world is changing fast. Every winter I pick up a book called Come November. If you get a chance buy a copy and read it. The book is probably over 10 years old and a great read. It is unbelievable how much things have changed since that book was written and how spot on some of the advice or stories are.

All you Iowa residents live in a great place. Where we live it is a common to have to lease farms if you want to hunt. Some farms get double leased for waterfowl and deer. If you want to buy a piece of land , do your homework, check out the neighborhood and don't wait to long. These might be the good old days.

Looking forward to my next two trips this spring.
 
This year he is seeing fewer deer, but they didn't exactly put up a goose-egg on his property.[/QUOTE]

No they didn't, but clearly there were no giants put down which is the real target for him. Some mature deer no doubt, but it definitely wasn't as good as they wanted. Don't know if you have seen his recent article, but Winke thinks numbers (on his farm) could be down as much as 20% of the population he had less than 10 years ago.
 
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