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What are the Odds??

jeezticals

jeezticals

Next Year
I was recently asked "What are one's chances in bagging a trophy (160+)?" I know there are many variables. Just wondering what other's opinions are. I told him 3% based on what I believe my chances are. I don't need elaborate explanations unless you find it nessisary. Just a figure. I am always looking for a good laugh also.
 
I'd suspect everyone's odds are deifferent based on many variables. Do you mean odds as in each time out or over the course of the season?
 
SaskGuy said:
I'd suspect everyone's odds are deifferent based on many variables. Do you mean odds as in each time out or over the course of the season?
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Im with you, some people are blessed with everything they need to shoot a 160 +, good ground, good genetis, good population, good equipment while others are so lucky to have all those.
 
If you are in a decent area in iowa? Surely if you are a good hunter 10% should be somewhat accurate. Higher for alot, lower for alot but that would be one every ten years.
 
Right now 1% but that could change with each card pull.

Cooter

Sent from my phone on IW
 
10% I would say for me in the area that im hunting this year. Im not gonna wait around all year for one to come by though.
 
I'd say there is a 100% chance I would shoot AT a 160+ but a 50% chance that I'd actually kill him, either I will or I won't.... :grin:
 
jeezticals said:
OK, as for yourself. At the beginning of this season.
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I've been lucky that over the last three years I've seen trophy bucks, in the 150-170 range, each season. I've never had a legit shooting opportunity at any of them. I blew a spot-n-stalk chipshot on a 140 class 8pt last year that I would consider a trophy. In 2009 i had around 150class 9pt bed at 55yds that never presented a shot and a 160class(+) come into a grunt to 10yds, but never took the extra two steps to give me shot (poor shooting lane prep on my part).

So, hopefully without jinxing myself, I'm going to say my "odds" are a bit higher, I just need to change up a few of the hunter-controlled variables (stand location, mainly) and pray for the next opportunity.

add in the uncontrollable factors of roads/cars, poaching, etc and I'm going to calculate around 25%.

Each year, my only goal is the hope of seeing a mature (4.5yr old or older) buck...rack size is secondary for me.
 
In my area I would say less than .01% chance, There will probably be a 160 class deer killed around here this year but I doubt there will be more than 1 or 2 killed in the surrounding 5 or 6 counties around me.
 
I know a few folks who have killed a 160"+ for every year for past 5+ years BUT they are pretty rare. OBVIOUSLY you have to be in an area that has them BUT there's a huge difference in the folks that are killing them VS the guy across the fence that goes 10 years without one. Both hunting same deer and neighborhood. I honestly know guys who hunt the SAME area & often the same section as the folks killing the 160's yearly who have gone 10+ years without killing one.

My own funny example I'd share since I sold my 1st piece many years ago & I could care less now.... The neighbor was pretty open about what deer he's shot, shows pictures, trail cams, brought by old kill photos, etc. I was pretty quiet about things at that time.... He said the biggest buck he'd seen or killed in like 15-ish years out there was about 160"-ish maybe? Showed the photo I think. 2 days prior to that I killed a 176" deer and a few days after that I ACCIDENTALLY (with my state wide bow tag still in hand) passed up a deer that would later go 197" (guy down the road killed him late season and I showed him the video of me PASSING him- I thought he was young and smaller obviously)- yes, to this day I still get flack on that one! Within 5 days I killed, passed and saw at least 1 other 160"+ deer and other folks in the area honestly believed they rarely existed except for the occasion 1 or 2 over a decade.
I truly believe, 2 generic guys can hunt the same block and 1 can/does shoot a 160" with REASONABLE consistency and another guy won't kill one in a decade. I'm talking about generic situations with some stellar hunters I've met through-out the years. It must start with the neighborhood having the deer BUT after that, it's a LONG ROAD... Scouting, LOW PRESSURE!, hunting proper stands, making the shot, knowing when to hunt an area, knowing how to hunt food sources (natural or ag, etc), not making the 100 different common mistakes out there, NOT GETTING BURNT OUT (pacing self), persistance, knowing how to call, playing the wind, GETTING LUCKY, making the shot, PASSSING YOUNG DEER to wait for the old one which is so rare, etc, etc, etc, etc. It's just such a complicated thing IF a guy is willing to invest in the time, knowledge, experience, persistence, etc. Sorry for the novel. You get my point. :)

*Yes, I like shooting high scoring deer like the next guy BUT I - PERSONALLY - am far more about the age. I have and will happily pass a 160" 3.5 or 4.5 and HAPPILY shoot that 140" 6.5 year old.
If you're talking about some of the best hunters out there, IN MY OPINION, the guy who shoots a 5.5 year old and older every year - I give far more props than the guy who shoots the 160"+ every year with many of those being 3.5-4.5 year old deer. I'm not knocking the 2nd fella if that's what they wanna do (which, yes, I don't want to do that) BUT the 1st is the far better hunter IMO.
 
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5%. I'm hunting good ground, but small parcels, lots of neighbors.... there are only so many deer that even make 160. I'll shoot any 4.5 (subjective, but that's what I deem mature-wish I could say 5.5, but not realistic for me) that presents an opportunity, score is not the determining factor

Not to change the thread, but what is the % of mature bucks that will make 160? Fewer than people think IMO

Best of luck to everyone this fall:drink2:
 
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DuckDogs said:
Not to change the thread, but what is the % of mature bucks that will make 160? Fewer than people think IMO
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I'd say not a lot BUT actually, more than people think. Most folks will probably say 20-40%-ish, I say more actually. The VAST MAJORITY of bucks that would have made it get killed by folks when the bucks are young and stupid BUT have "IMPRESSIVE" racks. I see it all the time, guys passing a 135" 8 that's 5.5 and whacking the 155" 3.5 year old. Or the 2.5 year old that's dumb as a heck BUT has 14 smaller points and kickers starting the runs out in front of the shotgun group. I have personally seen 3.5 year old deer that are over 170" - those deer on 95% of the farms out there are gonna get annihilated. They are visible, not too bright yet and most folks are out for score SO that premium, amazing genetic 3.5 year old gets whacked while the 4.5 that's 140" gets a pass.
I'm not trying to be a buck-snob, please don't take it that way (if you do, whatever anyways). Thankfully, I have my own land I can pass those dumb young bucks with superior genetics and blast the 6.5 year old 140 and be happy as a clam. I wish more folks did it, I won't lie. If folks let a vast # that are being killed go- the superior (and stupid) 2.5 and 3.5's- oh my gosh, what a dream scenario. To think of how many world record bucks have been killed many years too early- WOW! That's something to think about (and I am not trying to kill the new world record). How many world record bucks have been killed at 1.5 (or even button bucks!), 2.5, 3.5 (ok, doesn't matter BUT it's still interesting to think about). :)
 
From what I have seen, if the person hunts a good farm and can put in the time, chances are 25% or better to get a 160 if that is what they want.

My cousin shot 3 bucks that went from 156 to 181 in 3 straight years....and he will shoot a 120 if it presents itself :D
 
DuckDogs said:
Not to change the thread, but what is the % of mature bucks that will make 160? Fewer than people think IMO

Best of luck to everyone this fall:drink2:
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I agree with Skip, if all were allowed to get to 5.5 or better, its a lot more than people think and those 2.5's in my area of MO that go 130 get whacked every year while they will pass a 120 that is 3.5 or 4.5.
 
Im not guessing on the percent chance i have to shoot a 160.But show me a dumb 3.5 year old 180 and i will show you some field photos,And to me that is way better than a 8 yr old 140s.I dont own any land,I dont hunt managed farms.To me the 140 8 yr olds should be taken way before they get that old so they dont pass on the genetics.If i new that i had some 140-150 5yr old deer on my farm i would put some guys i know on them so they could shoot them.But i have also seen 140 inch freaks that i would shoot in a heartbeat,so score doesnt always dictate what i would shoot.But that is just me.
 
I actually took a very similar approach BEFORE I owned land too though. I did my best to pass younger bucks, let a lot of nice bucks walk and to ME, it wasn't all about just killing something and killing a buck every year. I also passed a lot of bucks with superior genetics in hopes they made it another year. We shot a lot of nice bucks (bigger than 160 and many of our biggest bucks) on average, knock on the door farms that had all sorts of guys on them. We shot a lot of OLD bucks on knock-on-the-door farms too. Anybody that knocked could generally hunt. Thankfully, even in pressured areas in IOWA, there's great deer almost anywhere. Obviously most folks are out for score BUT I WISH more folks would let the great genetic young deer go (whatever scale you're talking about for your area) but that's why we're all different & have different goals. To me, again, it's not about just me, I also look at what's best for neighborhood, biology, challenge, fun, excitement, reward, etc. Surely isn't about just killing something. Happy to pass that 3.5 year old 160" and end the year empty handed BUT that's me.
 
I also help manage a farm that i do not hunt.I shed hunt and run trail cameras.It is pretty easy to age bucks because we see the same deer on the cameras for the last few years.That makes it way easier to know what deer to shoot or not shoot.There was a deer on the farm last year that was a dandy,all the guys were all wanting to shoot that deer.I know from pictures and sheds that he was only a 4 yr old.I did not want them to shoot it at all.I told them that it should make a huge jump next year.Luckily the only day that one guy seen it,He had already filled his tag that morning.We found one of the sheds and he was in the 170s inch range.I have high hopes that this year he will put on 20 inches of antler this year.Im just saying that the kind of managing you are talking about skip is definatly not for everyone.Its way easier when you can run cameras and find sheds for years.I have seen old deer that look young and young deer that look old.The only way i know to accurately age a deer without running cameras and finding sheds is to send the teeth in to a lab,But by then its a little late for the young ones.
 
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